OnPrincipleBlog

Iraq Metric #4: Hearts & Minds Won:

This latest post exploring ways to judge success in Iraq build upon:

1. The 3 levels of our war on terror
2. An overview of how to measure success in Iraq
3. Metric #1: Combatant Eradicated
4. Metric #2: Accelerants to Violence Seized
5. Metric #3: Populations Freed

The basest assumption upon which the Global Long War on Terrorism is executed is that every human heart yearns for liberty, opportunity and self-determination. Yet, in Iraq we have encountered not a population welcoming Coalition troops with open arms, but an insurgency lead by mostly foreigners, but very much trooped by Iraqi people. To the average American, this reality has been perplexing, frustrating and frightening. If they don’t love us, WHO in the world DO they love? And what are the implications?

The Question:

After 9/11, most Americans (though not, it seems, the current Democratic leadership, the Liberal Bogs and much of the left leaning media) have no trouble understanding that Al Qaeda is committed to global Jihad and will stop at nothing to see America and other Western/free nations lose popularity, power, prestige and people. So, why is it that average Iraqi’s seem to distrust us and resist actively supporting our efforts to stabilize THEIR country?

Siding with Winners:

The answer is simultaneously simple and deeply profound. It’s implications cut to the heart of both our military strategy and our domestic politics.

Embattled Iraqi citizens aren’t stupid and Al Qaeda isn’t lazy.

The core to terrorism’s effectiveness is its ability to cower an entire population before relatively few oppressors. In this sense, terrorism can be a powerful force multiplier. The Jihadists in Iraq know this and are very vigilant in maintaining the necessary rhythm of attacks to imprison Iraqi mothers and fathers within stockades of internalized fear. These terrorist Overlords wickedly seek control through making examples out of the irreligious, rebellious and “traitorous”.

Iraqis have watched America establish a pattern of stirring up a mess and leaving the locals to clean it up. This is what happened during the US-encouraged Shiite uprising in the 1990’s which Saddam brutally suppressed while America watched. This is what occurred for 3 years across Iraq as Coalition forces cleared cities from terrorists but retreated back to their heavily fortified bases and watched as terror leaders filtered back into the population and meted out vengeance.

Iraqi’s aren’t stupid. They are not going to continue to stand with America if America isn’t going to stand firm with them. The price for our fickleness is paid in blood by them and their families.

This is why the Surge strategy was so important. It marked a change in our troop deployment from entrenchment within fortified bases to distributed neighborhood presence. It changed our focus from clearing territory to holding local populations. As we proved our determination to this strategy in the Spring, local Iraqi leaders started to warily assent that we had finally determined to win. These Iraqi’s decided they want to side with the winners. Slowly, in freed population after freed population, Tribe Amerikani is finally being embraced as liberators and “arbiters of Justice” – because we finally demonstrated some resolve to be more determined, more vigilant and more powerful than the terrorists.

The Alternative:

The alternative to demonstrating commitment to our cause is to look for ways to cut our investment, lessen our exposure and leave Iraq to the Iraqis. There is much about this notion that is indeed tempting. Yet, the stronger these voices become, the stronger Iraqi leaders must question our commitment and the riskier it becomes for them to support us by pointing out terrorists, taking up arms themselves, notifying us of IED’s and booby trapped buildings, etc.

Iraqis know the terrible price which they and their families will pay if we retreat. They have lived through the Hellish death squads Al Qaeda unleashes on recalcitrant villages.

Some American thought leaders (from both the Left and the Right) are starting to recognize this difficult truth. While Americans are being killed and are killing (both are horrible and ugly), the stronger is their presence on the ground, the safer are 25 million Iraqis. The liberal-leaning Brookings Institution concludes:

“The only thing standing between Iraq and a descent into a Lebanon- or Bosnia-like maelstrom,” a new report from the liberal-leaning Brookings Institution concludes, “is 135,000 American troops.” Rapid withdrawal, the report says, could bring “a humanitarian nightmare” in which we should expect “hundreds of thousands (conceivably even millions) of people to die.” (emphasis mine)

Love Breeds Hope:

Iraqis have been hunkered in battle, resistant to starvation, imperiled by a police state, confronted by chemical weapons and terrorized by tyrants. All of these villains have demonstrated a commitment and constancy to their cause. So while changing our tactics and our dialogue to convey commitment is key, we must also continue to demonstrate the vitality and constancy of American charity.

The list of ways in which our troops are serving the Iraqi people is too lengthy to summarize and doesn’t do justice to the personalized outpouring of care and concern from our troops to each freed population. These acts of servant leadership rebuild the desolate hopes of Iraqis and hasten the turning of their hearts to assisting our cause.

Moreover, this support is very practical in nature. Left completely devoid of savings, economy, education and the like – Iraqis need our assistance to meet their basic needs. This is Maslow’s Hierarchy in action. Only after the ability for their families to subsist and rest at peace has been confirmed, can a responsible Iraqi father even think of accepting the risk of assisting Coalition troops. Thus, the faster we supply these needs, the faster we open new doors of insight into the terrorists, garner new sources of critical intelligence and join with new allies in our fight.

Hope Breeds Resolve:

Once hope is rekindled in these hearts darkened by terror, Iraqis grasp the resolve to fan these first warming flames. The last 4 months have been filled with stories of Iraqi’s taking up arms to protect them selves, encouraging young men to join in the Iraqi Police Force, mobilizing neighborhood watch units, informing on the terrorists, etc. At latest estimate, as many as 30,000 former insurgents are now siding with the Coalition, turning on Al Qaeda and submitting to the direction of the central Iraqi government.

These actions stem directly from our demonstration of both power and resolve. In response, freed populations are demonstrating the resolve to both hold their area and assist in the freeing of other populations.

This is how critical mass turns the tide. This is how lowly, imprecise metrics of combatants eradicated and accelerants to violence seized multiply into Iraqi hearts and minds won and united in the fight for freedom.

Each heart emboldened behind a mind united with us is a ratio multiplier. It means fewer suppliers of accelerants to violence. It means fewer recruits. It mean more eyes, ears, experience and support for freedom. It means former insurgents turning from violence to supporting the central government and Coalition efforts.

Locals Protect Themselves:

http://www.mnf-iraq.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=13216&Itemid=128

Al Qeda informing on themselves. . .

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article2121006.ece

Anatomy of the Tribal Revolt Against Al Qaida:

http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2007/08/anatomy-of-a-tribal-revolt/

Tribe Amerikani:

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MGRmYWI2Njk5MWFkYzYzYWY4OWY5NzJjMGRkZTlhY2Q=

American Arbitors of Justice:

http://michaelyon-online.com/wp/baqubah-update-05-july-2007.htm

Brookings = Millions die If US Leaves:

Pasted from <http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-goldberg24jul24,0,5797195.story?coll=la-opinion-center>

On Principle,

Cbass

Japan has a new Prime Minister and, perhaps more importantly, the Free World is reminded it has a faithful friend.

The results are in. Yasuo Fukuda has won a very lopsided win over his rival Taro Aso. The two men both represent the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which in Japan is actually a group closely aligned with George W. Bush conservatism.

Most Americans would remember the LDP’s most colorful leader, Junichiro Koizumi; the Elvis loving, staunch ally of the US and personal friend of President Bush.

What’s important about this election is definitely something about who won, but it’s more about their shared position on policies which most American’s would assume to separate the two rivals - Japan’s continued support for coalition efforts in the Middle East.

After a full week of campaigning, there were few policy differences between the two candidates on many important issues. . . both have also inherited Abe’s insistence on continuing Japan’s support of coalition forces in Afghanistan through its refueling operations in the Indian Ocean.

Students of history will remember that Japan acquiesced to a humiliating surrender in the face of America’s nuclear arsenal. Since those days, Japan’s constitution, both its written document of governance and its wounded national psyche, has forbidden the nation to raise and launch an offensive military force for over 60 years. In this light, it was amazing to see Japanese soldiers involved in the coalition of nations who fought to overthrow Saddam and wrest control in Iraq. After several years of struggle, Japanese soldiers left the theater of Iraq, but the Japanese military has been continuously supporting the Coalition forces in the Middle East theater ever since.

Say what we will about how Pres. Bush has “supposedly” lost all international support, Japan will be a key player in a world of power which is shifting the Pacific.

It’s nice to have faithful friends.

On Principle,

CBass